dimanche 13 novembre 2011

Jurnal Nasional - Kamis, 10 Nov 2011 Halaman 1

Ekonomi RI Jadi Penopang Dunia
Jakarta | Kamis, 10 Nov 2011
Rihad Wiranto

POSISI Indonesia sebagai salah satu negara berkembang (emerging country) diandalkan untuk menopang perekonomian global. Hal tersebut seiring dengan ancaman perlambatan pertumbuhan ekonomi global akibat krisis utang di Eropa dan Amerika Serikat (AS).

"Dengan ancaman krisis yang berpotensi memperlambat ekonomi global. Posisi kita (Indonesia) dan negara-negara emerging country lainnya, seperti China, Brasil, India, dan Afrika Selatan, menjadi penting. Perekonomian Indonesia harus tumbuh untuk menopang ekonomi global, " kata pengamat ekonomi Universitas Kristen Atma Jaya Jakarta, A Prasetyantoko, Rabu (9/11).

Pernyataan itu menanggapi pernyataan Direktur Bank Dunia Sri Mulyani yang menyatakan Indonesia menjadi salah satu contoh negara yang mampu mempertahankan pertumbuhan. Prasetyantoko yakinBank Dunia berkepentingan dengan negara yang sedang berkembang seperti Indonesia. "Itulah kenapa Bank Dunia ke sini, yaitu untuk memastikan pertumbuhan ekonomi kita tetap terjaga," katanya.

Terkait potensi pertumbuhan yang dimiliki oleh Indonesia, menurut Prasetyantoko, masih sangat bangus dan kondusif. Gangguan krisis yang terjadi di Eropa dan AS diyakininya tidak akan berdampak jauh terhadap perekonomian nasional secara umum.

"Ekonomi kita sangat bagus. Sama sekali tidak ada masalah. Namun sayangnya terjadi paradoks, bahwa di tengah pertumbuhan APBN kita yang mencapai Rp1.400-an triliun, justru Indeks Pembangunan Manusia kita malah menurun. Ini yang harus kita waspadai," tutur Prasetyantoko.

Fakta paradoks tersebut, lanjut Prasetyantoko, merupakan indikasi bahwa pertumbuhan ekonomi yang selama ini terjadi baru mampu menyentuh kalangan atas saja. Sementara kalangan menengah ke bawah diyakini tidak ikut tumbuh semassif yang dirasakan oleh masyarakat perekonomian atas. "Itu artinya kesenjangan ekonomi makin melebar. Dan itu harus benar-benar diantisipasi, diatasi, agar menghambat potensi pertumbuhan kita yang sudah sangat bagus tadi," tegas Prasetyantoko.

Ekonom CSIS, Pande Radja Silalahi menyatakan meski banyak pihak menganggap krisis global tidak berdampak terhadap perekonomian nasional dalam waktu dekat, berbagai langkah antisipasi perlu dilakukan Indonesia.

Salah satu antisipasi yang dianggap paling mendesak untuk dikerjakan adalah pembenahan sektor riil. Menurut Pande Radja Silalahi, Indonesia perlu belajar sekaligus mengevaluasi terhadap gejolak sosial di Amerika Serikat yang timbul akibat membengkaknya jumlah masyarakat miskin di Negeri Paman Sam tersebut.

"Orang Amerika itu secara umum tidak biasa miskin, sehingga ketika tingkat kemiskinan di sana baru mencapai 10 persen saja, sudah chaos. Nah di sini (Indonesia), orang miskin sudah mencapai 30 juta saja ternyata masih relatif aman. Ini yang perlu kita jaga. Kalau kesenjangan ekonomi makin melebar, yang terjadi di AS pun bisa saja terjadi di sini," ujar Pande.

Dengan koreksi tersebut, Pande menekankan pentingnya memperbesar daya serap sektor riil terhadap aliran dana investasi yang masuk. Pande meyakini pertumbuhan perekonomian sektor riil dapat menjadi obat ampuh atas kesenjangan yang terbangun di masyarakat.

"Alirkan seluruh pertumbuhan yang ada ke sektor riil. Dengan begitu ekonomi masyarakat akan ikut tumbuh dan kesenjangan yang ada perlahan akan teratasi. Dengan begitu pertumbuhan yang ada juga akan semakin kokoh karena ditopang oleh kekuatan sektor riil," tegas Pande.

Analis BNI Ryan Kiryanto mengatakan untuk menangkal krisis, kampanye "Cinta Produk dalam Negeri" perlu digalakan. "Bila terjadi transmisi krisis ke Indonesia, kampanye ini harus digalakan. Jadi ajak masyarakat menggunakan produk lokal. Misalnya Masyarakat jangan menggunakan produk China, yang tengah membanjiri pasar kita" ujar Ryan.


Ryan mengatakan, bila krisis terjadi pemerintah juga harus melakukan optimalisasi produk lokal."Otomatis pemerintah harus segera memberikan modal untuk peningkatan produk ekspor," kata Ryan.


Ryan juga menyoroti perkembangan infrakstruktur, sebagai salah satu faktor pendukung pertumbuhan ekonomi yang masih kurang optimal. Ia pun meminta semua pihak terkait agar bisa mempermudah kebijakan dalam pembangunan infrakstruktur.


"Jangan hanya menyalahkan Menteri Keuangan saja pihak yang bertanggungjawab dalam pembangunan infrakstruktur, karena dia hanya pelaksana. Tapi, penegak hukum dan pembuat kebijakan juga jangan mempersulitnya. Intinya semua ini untuk kepetingan bangsa," kata Ryan.

Pengamat Ekonomi dari Lembaga Ilmu Pengetahuan Indonesia (LIPI) Latif Adam mengatakan, pemerintah sebaiknya mampu meningkatkan daya saing ekonomi lokal di tanah air untuk mendapatkan manfaat yang besar dari integrasi ekonomi ASEAN.

"Harus ada upaya dari pemerintah untuk membuat produk buatan asli Indonesia diterima pasar ASEAN, salah satunya adalah perbaikan infrastruktur di dalam negeri," katanya.

Latif menilai, anggaran pemerintah untuk membangun infrastruktur dalam negeri masih jauh dari ideal. Level ideal anggaran negara untuk membangun infrastruktur sebesar 5 persen dari Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB), tambahnya, sedangkan Indonesia masih jauh dari angka tersebut.

"Anggaran pemerintah tahun 2012 untuk infrastruktur dalam negeri baru sekitar 2 persen dari APBN," katanya.

Taufan Sukma/Andhika TS

ANCAMAN KRISIS GLOBAL Indonesia perlu waspadai ancaman India dan China

KONTAN, 14 November 2011 (http://nasional.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1321234231/82577/Indonesia-perlu-waspadai-ancaman-India-dan-China-)


JAKARTA. Dampak krisis di Yunani dan Italia yang terus memburuk harus diwaspadai oleh Indonesia. Pasalnya, memburuknya kondisi ekonomi di dua negara ini akan berdampak luas, bukan hanya untuk kawasan, tapi juga secara global.

Wakil Menteri Keuangan Anny Ratnawati mengungkapkan jika benar terjadi, maka dampak krisis yang ditimbulkan bagi ekonomi global akibat krisis ekonomi di Italia akan lebih besar ketimbang dampak krisis Yunani.

Alasannya, ekonomi Italia empat kali lebih besar ketimbang ekonomi Yunani. Bagi Indonesia, "Impact (dampaknya) hampir sama dengan (krisis) yang terjadi di Yunani, yakni mitigasinya kemungkinan implikasinya lewat dua hal, dampak terhadap ekspor kita karena demand turun dan ekspor lewat harga-harga yang turun. Kedua dari sisi kalau dia punya rembetan kepada perbankan," ungkapnya.

Untuk dampak ke sektor perbankan di Indonesia, Anny masih optimis kemungkinannya sangat kecil karena kondisi perbankan nasional cukup sehat dan rasio kredit bermasalah (NPL) perbankan masih cukup rendah.

Hanya saja, Anny mengingatkan hal lain yang perlu diwaspadai adalah ancaman derasnya arus modal masuk. Meski tak sekencang tahun ini, tapi Anny menuturkan tahun depan aliran modal masuk ke Indonesia masih akan terus mengalir. Makanya, Indonesia harus siap memanfaatkan arus modal masuk ini agar mengalir ke sektor riil.

Pengamat ekonomi dari Universitas Atmajaya A.Prasetyantoko mengungkapkan Italia skala ekonomi Italia yang lebih besar dari Yunani memang menjadi ancaman baru bagi Uni Eropa. Pasalnya, "Kalau sampai terjadi gagal bayar, beban Uni Eropa dan dunia akan sangat berat, sehingga potensi resesi global lebih besar," jelasnya Minggu (13/11).

Ia menambahkan, jika prospek ekonomi di kawasan Uni Eropa melemah, maka secara global ekonomi dunia ikut lunglai. Nah, imbasnya ekspor Indonesia ke kawasan ini juga akan menurun. "Penurunan ini tidak saja terjadi ke negara tujuan ekspor utama kita ke Eropa seperti Jerman dan Prancis, tapi secara umum ekspor ke kawasan Eropa akan melemah," ujar Praseytantoko.

Catatan saja, selama ini pangsa ekspor Indonesia terbesar di Uni Eropa adalah Jerman, Inggris dan Prancis. Berdasarkan data Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) sepanjang Januari - September 2011 total ekspor Indonesia ke Uni Eropa sebesar US$ 15,661 miliar, sebanyak US$ 2,54 miliar disumbang dari ekspor ke Jerman, US$ 1,28 miliar dari Inggris dan US$ 999,8 juta ke Prancis. Sisanya adalah sumbangan dari negra Eropa lainnya.

Indonesia di lapis ketiga

Sebelumnya, Ekonom Standard Chartered Bank Fauzi Ichsan juga bilang dalam skenario terburuk, Uni Eropa akan meredam krisis Yunani agar tidak meluas ke negara tetangga seperti Italia dan Spanyol. Dari sisi perbankan adalah dengan cara memperkuat perbankan Eropa, sebab jika harga surat utang Eropa jatuh maka imbasnya perbankan Eropa bisa mengalami kekurangan modal yang berdampak pada kekeringan likuiditas. "Memang pengaruh (dari sisi perbankan) Uni Eropa ke Indonesia tidak terlalu besar, tapi tetap perlu diwaspadai," katanya.

Sebenarnya, Prasetyantoko bilang yang perlu diwaspadai oleh Indonesia adalah jika memburuknya perekonomian kawasan Uni Eropa ini sudah merembet ke perekonomian global. "Selama ini dari sisi perdagangan Indonesia paling besar ke China dan India. Kalau dua negara ini sudah terkena imbas perlambatan global, otomatis Indonesia akan terpukul," ujarnya.

Pengamat Ekonomi Aviliani juga menambahkan, jika China dan India mengalami penurunan pertumbuhan ekonomi, maka dampak langsungnya akan dirasakan oleh Indonesia. "Ekspor Indonesia sudah pasti terpukul," ungkapnya.

Di sisi lain, jika ekonomi Uni Eropa melemah, maka India dan China akan mencari pasar baru bagi produknya yang selama ini dipasarkan ke Uni Eropa. "China dan India pasti akan mencari pasar baru kika Eropa dan AS terkena krisis. Dan yang pasti impor dari China akan lebih besar," kata Aviliani.

Makanya, di dalam negeri, Aviliani bilang pemerintah harus memperbaiki daya saing di dalam negeri agar perdagangan domestik tetap kuat dan tidak tergerus oleh produk impor.

samedi 8 décembre 2007

`Decoupling' Debunked as U.S. Collapse Infects World (Update2)

Dec. 7 (Bloomberg) -- It turns out the U.S. economy matters after all.

The credit collapse and dollar decline that followed a surge in U.S. home foreclosures jeopardize expansions in the U.K., Canada and Germany, economists said. They also debunk ``decoupling,'' an argument advanced by analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley that the world wouldn't suffer as it did during U.S. slowdowns in previous decades.

The Bank of England and Bank of Canada this week followed the Federal Reserve in cutting interest rates, and the European Central Bank lowered its growth forecast for next year. British policy makers reduced their benchmark rate yesterday, even after Governor Mervyn King expressed concern about inflation just two weeks earlier.

``Two thousand and eight will be the year of `recoupling','' said Peter Berezin, an economist at Goldman in New York, explaining his firm's about-face. ``What began as a U.S.-specific shock is morphing into a global shock.''

Of the 38 countries they monitor, Goldman economists expect growth to slacken in 26 and strengthen in a dozen. That will cause global growth to slow to 4 percent next year from 4.7 percent this year, with Europe and Japan fading faster than the U.S., they say.

``There are a lot of risks out there,'' Goldman Chief Economist Jim O'Neill said in an interview today.

Market lending rates have risen worldwide in the last three weeks as $70 billion of writedowns linked to defaults on U.S. subprime mortgages fanned international concern about the strength of financial institutions.

Roach Skeptical

Decoupling is ``a good story, but it's not going to work going forward,'' Stephen Roach, chairman of Morgan Stanley in Asia, said in an interview in New Delhi on Dec. 2. His colleague, Stephen Jen, said in a report the previous week that because the possibility of a U.S. recession has increased, so has the chance that the rest of the world will falter.

Higher market rates pushed up the cost of lending everywhere, making it costlier for companies and consumers to fund new spending or investment. The cost of borrowing euros for three months, for example, this week rose to a seven-year high.

``Initially the impact of the subprime crisis was on the U.S. directly, but what we're seeing now is a more insidious paralysis of credit conditions moving across different markets and economies,'' said Brian Hilliard, director of economic research at Societe Generale SA in London.

Threat to Airbus

The dollar's decline in sympathy with its economy is also exacting a price overseas. Airbus SAS may cut its 2 billion-euro ($3 billion) research budget to trim costs as the dollar's dive becomes ``life threatening'' for the world's largest planemaker, Chief Executive Officer Tom Enders said Nov. 23.

At the same time, U.S. consumers are starting to retrench in the face of declining home values and rising energy bills as oil prices near $100 a barrel. The Conference Board's index of consumer confidence decreased last month to the lowest since the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina in 2005.

Wolseley Plc of the U.K., the world's biggest distributor of plumbing and heating equipment, said Nov. 28 that first- quarter pretax profit through October fell almost 15 percent after U.S. revenue declined 10 percent.

``The American consumer is the big gorilla on the demand side of the global economy,'' Roach said. ``As the slowdown goes from housing to consumption, we'll find the world is not as decoupled as it thinks.''

U.K. Cut

U.K. monetary policy makers yesterday cut their key rate for the first time in two years to 5.5 percent, pointing to deteriorating financial markets. In August, King said he was optimistic the turmoil wouldn't hobble his economy.

The Bank of Canada identified ``global financial market difficulties'' as it lowered its main rate by a quarter point to 4.25 percent on Dec. 5.

While the European Central Bank is signaling no intention of cutting interest rates soon, Bank of France Governor Christian Noyer said Dec. 4 that there is now a ``question mark'' over his view of September that Europe would remain unscathed from the market rout.

Tai Hui, head of Southeast Asian economic research at Standard Chartered Bank Plc in Singapore, also doubts Asia's economies can weather a collapse in U.S. consumer demand, with Hong Kong, Taiwan, Malaysia and Singapore at particular risk from reduced exports.

`Need to See'

Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui said this week that ``we need to see how the U.S. consumer is affected'' as he holds his key rate at 0.5 percent, the lowest among industrialized nations. Waning U.S. demand meant the Japanese economy grew an annualized 1.5 percent in the third quarter, almost half the preliminary estimate, the Cabinet Office said in Tokyo today.

On the other hand, Alex Patelis, head of international economics at Merrill Lynch & Co., is confident ``the time has not yet come to call the end of this global upturn,'' citing demand in emerging markets such as China and Russia.

Patelis predicts the world economy will grow 4.7 percent next year and 5.6 percent if the U.S. is excluded.

John Llewellyn, a senior economic policy adviser at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in London, is unconvinced, arguing that if U.S. consumers buckle, so will growth elsewhere.

``Decoupling is a lovely idea, but I'll only believe it when I see it,'' he said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Simon Kennedy in Paris at skennedy4@bloomberg.net

mercredi 28 novembre 2007

BoJ warns of ‘disease’ in world markets

BoJ warns of ‘disease’ in world markets
By David Pilling in Tokyo

Published: November 27 2007 20:01 | Last updated: November 27 2007 20:01

The yen hit a two-and-a-half year high against the dollar on Tuesday as Toshihiko Fukui, governor of the Bank of Japan, expressed strong concern about the turbulence in world markets, comparing it with “a serious disease”.

The yen briefly rose to Y107.17 against the dollar, although it fell back to Y108 in Tokyo trading. Before July, when investors began to reverse some so-called yen carry-trade positions amid a retreat from risk, the currency had been trading at above Y120 to the dollar.

sharp oscillations sent Japanese equity markets gyrating, with the Nikkei index falling 300 points in the morning amid concern about the effects of a strong currency on exporters, before it rallied to close up 87.64 points as the yen drifted down again. Mr Fukui said the volatile movements in financial markets since July suggested global markets were paying the price for “euphoria and excessive risk-taking”. It was the central bank’s job, he said, “to help markets adjust themselves in an orderly manner as far as possible, while keeping markets functioning at all times.”

The BoJ has reacted to the US mortgage crisis by putting an expected interest rate rise on hold, keeping overnight rates at 0.5 per cent. Although the bank has fractionally pared back its growth and inflation predictions for this year, it has stuck to its central thesis that Japan’s economy remains in a virtuous cycle.

Masaaki Kanno, chief economist at JPMorgan in Tokyo, said a strengthening yen clouded the picture. If the yen broke through Y100 or Y90 to the dollar, he said, it could “be a big blow to the economy” and once more raise the spectre of deflation.

“In the past we didn’t worry so much about yen strength as we believed the global economy would grow steadily,” he said. “But if the strong yen is caused by the slowing of the global eco- nomy together with the spread of risk aversion, then probably we should be a bit more worried than before.”

Other economists said concern about the yen comes on top of worries about the domestic economy, partly brought on by a sharp fall in housing starts.

Jonathan Allum, strategist at KBC Financial Products, said the yen was still relatively weak against the euro, a fact that had helped underpin strong exports to European countries.

On Tuesday, the yen, which peaked at Y168 to the euro in early July, had strengthened to about Y160, compared with previous levels of about Y130.

If the yen appreciated further against the euro it could damage exports to Europe, Mr Allum said. But the “knee-jerk reaction that a strong yen is bad and a weak yen is good [for Japan] is probably a bit out of date.”

Japanese politicians have said that a strong yen is not bad for Japan in the long run, but they have warned about the dangers of sharp movements.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2007

samedi 24 novembre 2007

Bank investors prepare flood of ballot measures

By Martha Graybow

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. activist investors are preparing a flurry of corporate ballot measures at Wall Street banks in hopes that some big items on their wish lists, such as CEO pay reforms, will gain new traction amid the subprime lending crisis.

Proposals to give investors an advisory vote on chief executive compensation packages won wide support -- but not enough to pass -- at Merrill Lynch & Co Inc (MER.N: Quote, Profile, Research), Citigroup Inc (C.N: Quote, Profile, Research), Morgan Stanley (MS.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and elsewhere in the last proxy season.

Now, as investment banks reel from big write-downs on risky mortgage investments and shake-ups in the executive suite, activists are filing these "say on pay" proposals again and hoping they'll get more support at next spring's annual stockholder meetings.

They're also pushing for shareholder votes on an array of new executive pay initiatives.

Proxy ballots also could include proposals on risk disclosure and the relationships between banks and credit rating agencies that have been criticized for not sufficiently warning investors of subprime mortgage hazards.

Banks, lenders and others that have suffered from the subprime market collapse "are going to be the target of a lot of shareholder action," said Richard Ferlauto, director of pension and benefits policy at the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees.

"The strategy that many of these companies adopted was to assume too much risk," he said. "For awhile, when the market was riding high, they were able to take advantage, but when the liquidity in the market collapsed because of the credit crisis, it came home to roost."

PROPOSAL SUBMISSIONS

This is a busy time for activist investors, such as union-backed pension funds and public retirement systems, which already have had to submit resolutions to some companies or are facing looming filing deadlines if they want to get proposals on next year's ballots.

Proposals do not automatically get on ballots. Filers must meet eligibility rules, and companies sometimes can petition the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to exclude them.

Among the proposals that investor groups hope to get on ballots next year is a measure to force financial companies to reveal more about the types of mortgages they trade in. The measure was submitted at Bear Stearns Co Inc (BSC.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc (LEH.N: Quote, Profile, Research) by the pension fund of the Laborers' International Union of North America.

LIUNA, which runs a retirement fund for construction workers, said the proposal did not get into the mechanics of how the disclosures would be made, saying that would be something for the companies to work out.

The fund also has filed measures at Citigroup, IndyMac Bancorp Inc (IMB.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and Wells Fargo & Co (WFC.N: Quote, Profile, Research) to implement new controls on their relationships with credit rating agencies. The three big agencies are McGraw-Hill Cos Inc's (MHP.N: Quote, Profile, Research) Standard & Poor's unit, Moody's Corp (MCO.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and Fitch Ratings, a part of Fimalac SA (LBCP.PA: Quote, Profile, Research).

The proposals would bar credit analysts from covering the same company for more than five years and restrict the job movements of key employees between the credit agencies and the financial services sector.

Also, the Laborers' union has filed proposals at Merrill and Bank of America (BAC.N: Quote, Profile, Research) aimed at forcing them to disclose what kind of CEO succession plans they have in place, said Corporate Affairs Director Richard Metcalf.

COMPENSATION QUESTIONS

Executive compensation also will be front and center following some high-profile CEO departures on Wall Street, whose leaders' paychecks are among the highest in corporate America.

Merrill ousted Stan O'Neal as chairman and CEO last month just days after the company reported its biggest-ever quarterly loss. O'Neal, who took home about $48 million in compensation in 2006, also had about $161.5 million in retained stock awards and benefits when he departed.

Citigroup Chairman and CEO Charles Prince also left early this month amid big mortgage write-downs. He was paid about $26 million last year. Upon his retirement, he left with about $40 million more, including the value of vested options, deferred stock and restricted shares, as well as bonus and stock awards.

The hot issue of "say on pay" voting -- nonbinding votes for shareholders on whether they approve of executive pay packages -- will be reintroduced at an array of banks next year by AFSCME, Ferlauto said.

Elsewhere on the CEO pay front, the AFL-CIO submitted a new proposal at Citigroup to limit the length of an employment agreement with top executives and ban the accelerated vesting of stock options or other stock-based payouts for them.

The measure reflects growing frustration among shareholders who have suffered big stock losses triggered by the mortgage meltdown and are seeing big payments to outgoing chiefs, said Daniel Pedrotty, director of the AFL-CIO Office of Investment.

The shareholder losses are "only going to fuel this effort in implementing corporate governance safeguards and pay for performance -- two things that aren't in place now and need to be addressed," Pedrotty said. "If boards are not looking out for our interests, then we as shareholders should have the tools to hold them accountable."

(Reporting by Martha Graybow)

Reuters

jeudi 22 novembre 2007

Financial Hypocrisy

This year marks the tenth anniversary of the East Asia crisis, which began in Thailand on July 2, 1997, and spread to Indonesia in October and to Korea in December. Eventually, it became a global financial crisis, embroiling Russia and Latin American countries, such as Brazil, and unleashing forces that played out over the ensuing years: Argentina in 2001 may be counted as among its victims.

There were many other innocent victims, including countries that had not even engaged in the international capital flows that were at the root of the crisis. Indeed, Laos was among the worst-affected countries. Though every crisis eventually ends, no one knew at the time how broad, deep, and long the ensuing recessions and depressions would be. It was the worst global crisis since the Great Depression.

As the World Bank’s chief economist and senior vice president, I was in the middle of the conflagration and the debates about its causes and the appropriate policy responses. This summer and fall, I revisited many of the affected countries, including Malaysia, Laos, Thailand, and Indonesia. It is heartwarming to see their recovery. These countries are now growing at 5% or 6% or more – not quite as fast as in the days of the East Asia miracle, but far more rapidly than many thought possible in the aftermath of the crisis.

Many countries changed their policies, but in directions markedly different from the reforms that the IMF had urged. The poor were among those who bore the biggest burden of the crisis, as wages plummeted and unemployment soared. As countries emerged, many placed a new emphasis on “harmony,” in an effort to redress the growing divide between rich and poor, urban and rural. They gave greater weight to investments in people, launching innovative initiatives to bring health care and access to finance to more of their citizens, and creating social funds to help develop local communities.

Looking back at the crisis a decade later, we can see more clearly how wrong the diagnosis, prescription, and prognosis of the IMF and United States Treasury were. The fundamental problem was premature capital market liberalization. It is therefore ironic to see the US Treasury Secretary once again pushing for capital market liberalization in India – one of the two major developing countries (along with China) to emerge unscathed from the 1997 crisis.

It is no accident that these countries that had not fully liberalized their capital markets have done so well. Subsequent research by the IMF has confirmed what every serious study had shown: capital market liberalization brings instability, but not necessarily growth. (India and China have, by the same token, been the fastest-growing economies.)

Of course, Wall Street (whose interests the US Treasury represents) profits from capital market liberalization: they make money as capital flows in, as it flows out, and in the restructuring that occurs in the resulting havoc. In South Korea, the IMF urged the sale of the country’s banks to American investors, even though Koreans had managed their own economy impressively for four decades, with higher growth, more stability, and without the systemic scandals that have marked US financial markets with such frequency.

In some cases, US firms bought the banks, held on to them until Korea recovered, and then resold them, reaping billions in capital gains. In its rush to have westerners buy the banks, the IMF forgot one detail: to ensure that South Korea could recapture at least a fraction of those gains through taxation. Whether US investors had greater expertise in banking in emerging markets may be debatable; that they had greater expertise in tax avoidance is not.

The contrast between the IMF/US Treasury advice to East Asia and what has happened in the current sub-prime debacle is glaring. East Asian countries were told to raise their interest rates, in some cases to 25%, 40%, or higher, causing a rash of defaults. In the current crisis, the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank cut interest rates.

Similarly, the countries caught up in the East Asia crisis were lectured on the need for greater transparency and better regulation. But lack of transparency played a central role in this past summer’s credit crunch; toxic mortgages were sliced and diced, spread around the world, packaged with better products, and hidden away as collateral, so no one could be sure who was holding what. And there is now a chorus of caution about new regulations, which supposedly might hamper financial markets (including their exploitation of uninformed borrowers, which lay at the root of the problem.) Finally, despite all the warnings about moral hazard, Western banks have been partly bailed out of their bad investments.

Following the 1997 crisis, there was a consensus that fundamental reform of the global financial architecture were needed. But, while the current system may lead to unnecessary instability, and impose huge costs on developing countries, it serves some interests well. It is not surprising, then, that ten years later, there has been no fundamental reform. Nor, therefore, is it surprising that the world is once again facing a period of global financial instability, with uncertain outcomes for the world’s economies.

Joseph Stiglitz is a Nobel laureate in economics. His latest book is Making Globalization Work.

mercredi 14 novembre 2007

Buffett backs higher private equity taxes

Warren Buffett on Wednesday threw his support behind a proposal to increase tax on private equity and hedge fund managers as part of a broad appeal to US law­makers to address widening income inequality.

The statement by Berkshire Hathaway’s chief executive stood in contrast to a lobbying campaign by business groups to stop legislators in the Senate from adopting a proposal that would more than double the tax rate for executives at buy-out groups such as Carlyle, as well as property partnerships and venture capital firms.

The House of Representatives last week passed a proposal that would increase tax paid on carried interest – the compensation paid to executives in partnerships, currently at the 15 per cent capital gains rate – to up to 35 per cent. The measure, part of a package to fund middle-class tax relief, is not expected to pass in the Senate this year. That has not stopped intense lobbying by business groups, however, who fear the issue may gain momentum ahead of next year’s presidential election.

At the heart of the debate is the question of whether investment managers’ stakes in partnerships’ earnings should be treated as ordinary income or as gains on investments. Mr Buffett said he had benefited from carried interest when he ran an investment partnership.

“I was managing money for other people...believe me, it’s an occupation. I believe you should tax people on carried interest,” he said.

The world’s second richest man, whose fortune is estimated at $52bn (€35.5bn, £25.3bn), has been an outspoken critic of rising income inequalities. His remarks on carried interest were made at a Senate finance committee hearing at which he said Washington should give low-income families a $1,000 tax credit instead of repealing the federal estate inheritance tax.

In June, the “Sage of Omaha” told investment bankers and private equity moguls gathered in New York to raise money for Hillary Clinton that the US tax system was unfair because it taxes rich people less than their secretaries or cleaners.

“The 400 of us [here] pay a lower part of our income in taxes than our receptionists do – or our cleaning ladies, for that matter,” he told his audience, who paid $4,600 a head to attend. “If you’re in the luckiest 1 per cent of humanity, you owe it to the rest of humanity to think about the other 99 per cent.”